Last year the Chancellor hailed the unbroken run of growth as the best since the Industrial Revolution Yesterday he went further. "Britain is today experiencing the longest period of sustained economic growth since records began in the year 1701," he said.In a reference to Arsenal's now-broken run of 49 matches without a loss, Mr Brown said the UK had gone one better with 50 successive quarters of growth, cunningly pulling a magician's cloak over the fact that 15 of those quarters were achieved under the Tories.. From April this year, a family with one child, and claiming working tax credit, will be able to claim a maximum of 70 per cent of £175 a week in childcare bills, rising to 80 per cent of £175 from next year.The increases in tax credits and child benefits are in line with earnings, a move which charities had said was vital if the Government was to hit its targets on reducing poverty.Kate Green, the chief executive of the Child Poverty Action Group, welcomed the announcements on tax credits. A middle-income family on annual earnings of £23,400 will be £260 a year better off under the changes.The increases will mean that three million of Britain's seven million families with children will now receive more in tax credits and child benefits than they pay in income tax, the Chancellor said.Middle-income families will also benefit from the rises in child-tax credits. Millions of low-income families with young children were given further tax credits and benefits in the Chancellor's Budget. He claimed that "every family in Britain will be better off" as a result of his policies.
"The Budget forecast for 2004 of growth at or above 3 per cent was said to be a deliberate misrepresentation of Britain's economic position," he said. Andrew Smith, chief economist at KPMG, said: "The Chancellor is relying on the Bank to blink first, as last year. Mr Brown needs robust economic activity to meet his financial projections, but the Monetary Policy Committee [which pulls the interest rate lever] suspects continued above-trend growth will fuel inflation."The Chancellor challenged his critics to prove him wrong andderided the Conservatives. The latest survey of economists by the Treasury published on Tuesday showed average independent forecast for growth this year is 2.6 per cent followed by 2.3 per cent in 2006.Economists said the Treasury was betting the Bank of England would not start implementing rate rises that could halt the strong economic growth Mr Brown needs for the public finances. The new forecasts still leave the Treasury far more optimistic than independent experts at City banks or in academia. Going forward, borrowing, with PBR forecasts in brackets, falls to £32bn (£33bn) in 2005-06, £29bn the following year (£29bn), £27bn (£28bn) for 2007-08 and £24bn (£24bn) for 2008-09.
Finally he issued his first forecast for the 2009-10 fiscal year, pencilling in a £22bn deficit.More importantly, he raised his forecast for the deficit on current spending by £3.5bn to £16.1bn, but cut it by £1bn in 2006-07, the final year of the cycle. "The shortfall is now expected to fall by £10bn rather than £5bn," said Simon Rubinsohn, chief UK economist at fund managers Gerrard. "It is hard not be a little sceptical about the extent of improvement projected."The Chancellor made the numbers add up by cutting spending growth to 5.9 per cent from 6.6 per cent and raising revenue growth to 8.5 from 7.2 per cent. Malcolm Barr, UK economist at JP Morgan Chase, said Mr Brown had ignored all his recent fiscal forecasts that had turned out worse than expected. "If we get prolonged sluggish growth then I think we would find the fiscal rules would force the Chancellor to raise taxes despite having sub-par growth," he said.The Chancellor stuck with his forecasts for economic growth over the next three years, not even bothering to waste words dismissing the gloomy outlook from City and academic commentators.GDP growth in the current year will be within a range of 3 to 3.5 per cent, followed by 2.5 to 3 per cent next year and 2.25 to 2.75 per cent. But he cut the margin of error from £8bn in December to just £6bn."With our deficits lower than our competitors, lower than a decade ago - and with our debt lower than our competitors and lower than a decade ago - we are meeting both our fiscal rules in this economic cycle and the next," he told MPsBut this cut little ice outside Whitehall where analysts said he had not addressed a structural black hole in the public finances. Martin Weale, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said: "The Government has been slow to recognise the way in which the fiscal position has worsened over the last year."The Chancellor said borrowing for the tax year ending next month would be £34.4bn, almost unchanged from the £34.2bn he forecast in December's pre-Budget report.


